Polygamy as a Ponzi scheme: how population growth shapes marriage markets in Africa

Polygamy as a Ponzi scheme: how population growth shapes marriage markets in Africa

Pauline Rossi (CREST)

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ABSTRACT:

In Sub-Saharan Africa, polygamy is very prevalent: 10 to 50% of married women are in a polygamous union depending on the country. Yet, historically, the fraction of men who never marry has always been low. This is because a fast population growth combined with a large age gap between husbands and wives created a surplus of women on the marriage market. However, this surplus is projected to shrink as population growth has started to slow down. The demographic conditions necessary to sustain high levels of polygamy while ensuring that all men eventually marry are therefore less likely to hold in the future. What will be the effect on the marriage market? Will polygamy disappear or will male involuntary celibacy explode? We develop a structural model to study under which conditions we should observe a decrease in the share of polygamous men and/or an increase in the share of single men when population growth declines. We provide an empirical application using original data from Senegal.  

BIO:

Pauline Rossi is Professor of Economics at Ecole Polytechnique-CREST, a Research Affiliate at CEPR and BREAD, and an Associate Editor at Economic Journal. She is also a member of the Council of Economic Analysis to the French Prime Minister (CAE). Her fields of research are Development Economics and Family Economics.